Bayesian Inference in Muscle Growth

Philip Pape 0:01

If you've been spending money on collagen protein for muscle building or wondering whether it's worth the investment , this episode's for you . Today , we're breaking down the truth about collagen protein and muscle growth using a framework called Bayesian Inference . This is a powerful tool from statistics and engineering , and we'll use it to explore what the latest research says about collagen's effectiveness specifically , and why you might need to rethink your overall strategy , but , more generally , how to apply Bayesian thinking to any fitness claim so that you can make smarter decisions about your nutrition and training . So get ready not only to challenge your assumptions , but to learn how to challenge them and any claim out there , so that you can build muscle and train and eat more effectively . Welcome to Wits and Weights , the show that blends evidence and engineering to help you build smart , efficient systems to achieve your dream physique .

Philip Pape 1:00

I'm your host , philip Pape , and today we're diving into a topic that might upend your protein supplement routine , because many of you are using collagen protein or you're wondering about it , and I often talk to potential clients and clients who say , yeah , I get 20 or 40 grams of my 120 grams of protein from collagen peptides . Is that effective ? Or sometimes they just assume it is , and so today we are going to explore why collagen protein might not be the muscle building powerhouse or even helpful at all for muscle building that it's usually marketed at , especially to older individuals , who definitely are a market for anything talking about maintaining skeletal muscle mass . We're going to evaluate this claim using a powerful tool from statistics engineering called Bayesian inference . So if you're new to the podcast , the Wednesday episodes we take a framework or a concept from engineering and apply it to fitness , because it's a different perspective and a helpful way to apply our critical thinking skills to this topic , and then by the end of the episode , you'll have a new framework for evaluating any fitness claim . You see whether it's on Instagram , on a podcast , on my own show and then make smarter decisions for you about your nutrition Before we get into it . If you enjoy the show and you want more content on building muscle and losing fat efficiently , hit the follow button . That's all I ask that you do . Just hit the follow button in your podcast app so you'll get notified of the next episode , help more people find the show and also allow me to understand whether you like the show or a specific topic so that I can create more content like that .

Philip Pape 2:37

So first let's talk about what Bayesian inference is In simple terms , it is a method of updating our beliefs as we get new information . That's all it is . It's named after Thomas Bayes , an 18th century statistician , and we're not going to get into any formulas or too much of that history . I want you to think of Bayesian inference like this you start with an initial belief about something , then you get some new evidence and , based on that evidence , you adjust your belief . It's just a simple mental workout for your critical thinking skills and something that we basically want to do to everything that comes our way , everything , every source of information that comes into our ears , our eyes , our brains . And you know who does this really well is my daughter both my daughters . So we homeschool our kids and they take logic something I never took as a kid , and I wish every human being had to take logic in grade school , especially politicians , but even fitness influencers , because the ability to identify logical fallacies and take evidence and adjust our beliefs is super important . But in the fitness world , you know , we are constantly bombarded with new information , with new studies , with new claims , and Bayesian thinking gives us a structured way to process all of this and then come to more accurate conclusions without necessarily having to dive deeply into all of the studies and all of the details at that level . And we're not saying that we're going to abandon all our prior beliefs every time . It's kind of like a scientific hypothesis . You know we have the hypothesis and the evidence comes in and supports the hypothesis over and over and over again and so it becomes a stronger and stronger belief . But eventually something might upend that that has never been studied before and it either rejects part or all of the hypothesis with the new information . And so , same thing in our brain we have these beliefs and we want to update the beliefs in proportion to the strength of the new evidence . So even it's not abandoning everything , it's just updating our beliefs proportionally .

Protein Quality and Muscle Growth

Philip Pape 4:37

So let's apply this to today's topic , which is collagen protein and muscle growth . Our prior belief , our starting point , might be that all protein sources are equally effective for building muscle . In fact I and many other people will say just get your total protein for the day from any source , whether it's animal , plant sources , and you're good . And generally I still stand by that statement because many people who are consuming collagen protein , it's probably a small percentage of their protein anyway , it's probably not a big deal . However , if you're trying to make choices and maybe even save some money in your supplements and not have to try to game the system with something that doesn't work , we want to dig in and say , well , what about collagen protein specifically ? After all , protein's protein , right . And then this belief is reinforced by the supplement companies who market collagen as a muscle building aid , along with all these wonderful benefits for hair , skin , nails , right Kind of the beauty side of it , which you see prevalent in the beauty industry as well . Yeah , so here's where things get interesting .

Philip Pape 5:46

There's a new study that came out . It was reviewed in mass the monthly application of strength sport a very well-respected research review from Stronger Byte Science , right , dr Eric Helms and those guys and it challenges the belief and this is where we can apply the Bayesian thinking . The study conducted by researchers like James McKendry and Stuart Phillips . It looked at the effects of different protein supplements on muscle protein synthesis in older males . So we've got they're isolating to the specific supplement , they're looking at how it affects muscle growth and they're looking at older population all the things we generally care about here . They compared whey protein , pea protein and collagen protein , and what they found is that both whey and pea protein increased muscle protein synthesis by about 9% compared to a control diet , but collagen protein didn't increase it at all Zero . So let's put on our Bayesian thinking caps .

Philip Pape 6:43

We started with the belief that all proteins are equal for muscle growth . This evidence suggests strongly that that is not the case , and so we have to update our belief . So , in Bayesian terms , we are calculating the likelihood of collagen being effective for muscle growth . Given this new data and based on this study , that likelihood has dropped quite a bit . So what's our new , updated belief ?

Philip Pape 7:04

That not all proteins are equal when it comes to muscle growth , and we have evidence saying that whey and pea protein are , collagen isn't , and so this has some important implications . First , it suggests that when you choose a supplement for muscle growth whey or pea protein in fact , I prefer pea slash rice blend protein if you're vegan , vegetarian or you cannot tolerate dairy or whey products , so whey or pea and rice might be better choices than collagen . And second , it highlights the importance of protein quality , not just quantity , which sometimes gets dismissed because we say look , if you eat enough protein from multiple sources , you will not have to worry so much about quality , but I would argue that if you are heavily leaning toward one source that is low quality , that could have a negative impact on the overall quality . Now , this is just one study . This is just one study . So , in the spirit of Bayesian thinking , we should be open to updating our beliefs further as more evidence comes in . Maybe future studies will show a benefit to collagen for muscle growth in certain contexts , or maybe they'll just confirm what we just read .

Philip Pape 8:08

So , practically , if your goal is to build muscle , I would just say there's no need to use collagen . Like most people , when they consume collagen , they're having to go out of their way to buy it as a specific source of protein , and I would say just don't worry about it . Just focus on high quality protein sources from food , mostly predominantly animal products if you're an omnivore , and then plant sources as well , but vegans , vegetarians , can get plenty of high quality protein just from a diverse diet . And as far as supplements , many of us who need a decent amount of protein , yeah , we've got to have a whey protein shake or pea slash rice protein shake in there . There's no issues with that . There's no problem with that . So we got whole food sources lean meats , fish , eggs , legumes , soybean type products , and then we have , of course , our supplements whey or pea slash rice .

Philip Pape 8:57

Now you might say , well , what about all the other benefits of collagen ? Right ? Should I just stop taking it and then I avoid or I miss out on those benefits ? So let's again Bayesian hat on here . Look at some of the other claimed benefits . The first one is skin health , and there is some evidence that collagen supplementation might improve skin elasticity and hydration . But and what I'm going to say here when I say , but for that ? And the hair ? Claim ? So hair and nail strength , right ? Sometimes evidence shows benefits of that . I think if you look at the confounding or moderating factors and somebody has just a generally good diet and are well hydrated , we see mixed to anecdotal or no implications whatsoever here , and I've found that people who start to eat more protein and eat more nutrient dense foods and a variety of foods actually have improved skin , hair and nail health anyway . And so then you wonder is it the collagen or not ? Now , collagen has a couple of amino acids , so if you're getting protein from higher quality sources , you're still getting the amino acids that are also in collagen generally . So maybe that's where the benefit comes from , and then why isolate the protein to just collagen in that case if you're not also getting other benefits for the muscle side of the equation ? That's my logic .

Philip Pape 10:21

Joint health some studies indicate it might help reduce joint pain , for example in athletes and in people with osteoarthritis . It is not super strong evidence , but where there is evidence is for type 2 collagen , which is usually not the collagen that's contained in these peptides . You'd have to go out of your way to get a special supplement for that . Like I know , legion makes one called Fortify . That I personally take . It seems to be slightly helpful for me . I have a what do you call it , I can't think of the word with my hip when you're missing a little bit of the material in the cartilage . Uh , the , the the word escapes me , but , um , I do take it personally . I know others who found it quite helpful , uh , when they have joint pain or joint issues . Once they've addressed the other things like are you strength training , for example , are you squatting and deadlifting ? Cause those are much more helpful for most people with joint health .

Philip Pape 11:11

And then gut health there's a little bit of research suggesting collagen might support gut health , but again , I think it's confounded by the fact that a lot of people don't have great diets , a lot of people don't have diverse diets , and once you do have that , a lot of these issues get resolved right . So , yeah , these potential benefits are slightly interesting . But a well-balanced diet , rich in a variety of protein sources , should already provide the amino acids that your body needs for these functions , and you don't have to go out of your way and have bone broth and very specific things like that , necessarily . But if you have a variety of fruits , vegetables , lean meats the things we talked about they will support the skin health , joint health , gut health , without having a supplement .

Philip Pape 11:55

So the goal here isn't to demonize collagen , it's just to understand its role and limitations . If you enjoy using it , if you feel you're benefiting from it that's another important factor is your individual response , and I've seen this . People are like well , I started taking it and all these things improved Great . Now I don't know if they also changed other things in their diet or they started changing the way they move or train , but you always want to isolate these variables one at a time and see , based on your biofeedback and results over , say , a several week period . Is it giving you anything meaningful as a result ? If not , maybe that's telling you something . It definitely should not be your primary protein source for muscle building . So if you're trying to add more protein into your diet for that purpose , I would not recommend collagen .

Philip Pape 12:36

So the real takeaway here isn't really about the collagen . It's about how we approach information in general with this Bayesian inference , this Bayesian thinking . When we do that , we first start with what we currently believe , based on the available evidence . Then we look at new studies or information with an open but critical mind . Then we update our beliefs based on the quality and strength , right , the proportion of that evidence , and then we've got to be willing to change our approach if that's what it suggests .

Philip Pape 13:02

And I'm going through this on a constant basis as I research for this podcast , as I talk to all of you . You know , dear listeners , and you might hear my approach shift over the years slightly it's because new evidence is coming in . It's not because I'm a flip-flopper . Maybe I was ignorant as well . That's always a possibility as human beings , and I try to be as informed as possible . But being informed also means being open to change , and so this helps us navigate what seems like a very confusing world of fitness and nutrition advice with the diet trends , with the workouts , with the supplement claims . There's so much out there and a tool like this is very powerful , so remember that applying Bayesian thinking to your fitness is a way to evaluate a claim or trend . Start with your beliefs , consider new evidence , update your understanding and then you're equipped to make more informed decisions .

Evidence-Based Nutrition and Fitness Insights

Philip Pape 13:54

All right if you found value in today's episode . If you want to stay up to date with the latest evidence-based information for nutrition , training , fitness mindset , join my email list . Just go to witsandweightscom slash email or click the link in the show notes Again witsandweightscom slash email or click the link in the show notes and then you will get exclusive content , articles , early access to content , or maybe exclusive content and personalized advice to help you on your journey . Until next time , keep using your wits , lifting those weights and remember , in the world of nutrition , training , fitness , being open to new evidence is just as important as being consistent , taking action . This is Philip Pape and you've been listening to Wits and Weights . I'll talk to you next time .